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To no great surprise, the Minnesota Lynx and New York Liberty sit atop the WNBA standings with the 2025 season now past the halfway point. An injury-filled campaign for the defending champion Liberty has them looking up at Minnesota from the No. 2 seed. But even though home-court advantage may flip, a rematch of the 2024 WNBA Finals seems as likely as ever.
Which team can crash the party? Preseason darlings in the Indiana Fever and the Las Vegas Aces have either been uneven or outright disappointing, while the Seattle Storm’s offense — and general vibe — can flatline at any moment. Some may point to the Atlanta Dream, led by All-WNBA lock Allisha Gray and buoyed by a gigantic Brittney Griner-Brionna Jones frontcourt responsible for the best rebounding numbers in the league.
But one game ahead of Atlanta, sitting in third place as they have for much of season, are the 16-9 Phoenix Mercury. Relentlessly uptempo and led by one of the sport’s most unique stars, we know they are good. Can they be great?
Alyssa Thomas Is An All-Timer
That star is Alyssa Thomas, in her first season with the Mercury after 11 legacy-cementing seasons as a member of the Connecticut Sun. If you’re not familiar with Thomas, who has recovered from a torn Achilles tendon in nine months and plays with a torn labrum in each shoulder, go read this story. In 2023, she placed second in MVP voting (despite getting the most first-place votes), and yet, 2025 has been her best season to date.
At 6 feet 1 inches, she is essentially a point-forward, though even that categorization feels too reductive. Thomas does everything for Phoenix’s offense, which relies on her as a dribble-handoff hub in the half-court. Despite her inability to shoot from the outside, the Mercury are third in the WNBA in 3-point rate, as they often surround Thomas with four capable shooters who can fly off screens right into actions with her:
That’s Sami Whitcomb — currently shooting 36 percent from deep on a dozen attempts per 100 possessions — canning that one and exemplifying a typical Phoenix possession. Going underneath the screen is instant death of course, but her connection with Thomas is coverage-proof. Overplay, and it’s a backdoor cut. Trap it, and Thomas is getting into the short roll, where her bruising scoring package and court vision kill defenses.
But Thomas is no stiff screen-setter who can merely pass a little. She can really handle the ball and her most entertaining plays come via inverted actions, where she gets ball-screens from her guards:
Despite missing a handful of games early on due to injury, Thomas is averaging 15.7 points, 9.4 assists and 8.0 rebounds a night, career-highs in the first two categories. Phoenix has a net rating of plus-7.52 with her on the court and minus-3.34 with her off, an MVP-type swing that comes entirely on offense. The Mercury can play at the league’s third-fastest pace, largely thanks to her combination of rebounding, handling and passing, which leaps off the screen on plays like this:
Beyond the clear-cut transition opportunities, there is a downstream effect that breaks defenses over time. Thanks to Thomas (and head coach Nate Tibbetts), Phoenix’s spaced-out, motion-based offense gets the most out of its 24 seconds.
Notice how many clips of its half-court offense in this article begin with ~18 seconds on the shot clock. Even if the first couple actions fizzle out, defenders still have to handle three or four more guard-to-guard screens or dribble-handoff opportunities. It is exhausting, and on top of all that, Thomas’ offense has the fourth-lowest turnover rate in the league.
Watch a game casually. Peruse the box score. Dive into advanced statistics and into the film. No matter what you do, you’ll come away knowing Alyssa Thomas is a bona fide star.
A Complementary Supporting Cast
And yet, Thomas was not the Mercury player selected to start in the All-Star Game. That honor went to Satou Sabally, who later pulled out with an injury. That selection didn’t make much sense, but WNBA All-Star voting ends after most teams have played around 15 games, an impossibly small sample size to determine these decisions.
Sabally is averaging 18 points on 39/30/83 splits. Although she’s missed some games here and there, she’s provided fairly consistent impact. As in, she consistently loves to shoot the ball; factoring in free throws, she shoots about once every 90 seconds. And yet, while (a lack of) efficiency won’t bare this out — neither will a staggeringly low assist rate — Sabally seems well-suited for this Phoenix offense as a play-finisher (aside from some tunnel vision in transition and dribble handoffs).
Tibbetts seems eager to play to her strengths. On this possession, she races off a screen and doesn’t immediately find a shot…
…But after a quick reset, she posts up a strong defender in Jackie Young, and at 6 feet 4 inches, she can muscle in a layup with her dominant hand.
That’s two quick scoring opportunities for Sabally utilizing her varied skill-set. Some may call her a chucker, but hey, she can chuck out of any action from any area of the floor. Next to Thomas, who can’t shoot outside the paint, that should have value.
Sabally is a better 3-point shooter than what she’s shown so far. Any positive regression will juice her numbers greatly and make actions with Thomas even more lethal. By September, though, she may not be Phoenix’s ideal Robin.
Kahleah Copper, the 2021 WNBA Finals MVP, has only played nine of 25 games as she deals with a left knee injury, but she’s back in the lineup for the season’s second half. While the 30-year-old is still getting her legs underneath her, the flashes of her fit next to Thomas have already been there. Outside of pocket passes and dump-offs, Copper can struggle to read the floor yet is a dynamic cutter, transition finisher and driver:
All of those skills should be amplified alongside Thomas’ brand of basketball. Small sample alert, but in just 161 minutes this season, Phoenix has a 113.2 offensive rating with Thomas and Copper on the court, which would be the best mark in the league by a country mile.
We can’t make any declarative statements on the Mercury and their ultimate ceiling quite yet. Despite having the third-best record in the W, they “only” have the fifth-best net rating and fall apart when Thomas and, to a lesser extent, Sabally exit the game. The flip side, though, is Copper, their four-time All-Star and most ideal fit next to Thomas, has barely played 200 minutes this season. More, please.
What Is Tibbetts Willing To Sacrifice With His Lineups?
To me, this is the most fascinating question regarding Phoenix. Health permitting, it has a legitimate “Big Three” that will play massive minutes and carry a heavy load in every playoff game. Sami Whitcomb is a dependable role player, and while recent addition DeWanna Bonner probably can’t give more than 15-20 minutes in a big game, she can still hit huge shots. Rookie Monique Akoa Makani is yet another guard who can fly off screens and hit shots, but probably offers more defensive prowess than the aging Whitcomb.
However, the Mercury’s best supporting player is undoubtedly Natasha Mack. A 6-foot-3 center wielding plus length and springs in her legs, Mack is tied with Angel Reese for third in the WNBA in offensive rebounding rate and is fourth in block rate (minimum 200 minutes). She touts enough mobility to play decently high up the floor against screens while still being able to recover to the rim and do this:
During Sunday night’s victory against the Washington Mystics, Mack made her sixth start of the season. However, it was the first time she started with the team fully healthy, and with Kathryn Westbeld coming off the bench.
Westbeld has been something of a half-measure for the Mercury. A fine player as an age-29 rookie, she is a 6-foot-3 forward who defenses respect from three, as she’s shooting 31 percent on nearly three attempts per game. But even with decent size and positional awareness, she’s not nearly the defender Mack is, just not athletic enough to be disruptive in space or at the rim.
Phoenix has soared with both Mack and Thomas both on the court this season, but it’s also shooting an unsustainable 45 percent from deep in those minutes. The Mercury offense will take a hit if they play Mack next to Thomas. Mack is a solid finisher at the rim but doesn’t have the best hands and sense of positioning around the paint, and the pass Thomas struggles with most is dump-offs near the hoop. She’s much better making kick-out passes or hitting backdoor cutters from above the arc, Draymond Green style.
So, what is Tibbetts to do? I asked him about finding Mack more minutes and he was non-committal.
“I think we have to do a better job of finding Mack minutes, not with [Thomas],” Tibbetts said before Friday’s game against the Liberty. “But I think you’ll probably see that tonight, just because of the injuries, we’ve maybe been forced to play them together a little bit more, which is fine. I mean, I think anytime you have good players, you’re going to put them on the floor if they’re shooters or not shooters.”
Indeed, we saw it that night. Westbeld was a late scratch with an illness, so Mack started next to Thomas. She only played 18 minutes against New York, minutes which Phoenix won by 10.
And yet, the Mercury got destroyed in all those other minutes, losing 89-76 to the Liberty, a team they had beaten twice earlier in the season. But unlike those two meetings, both teams were as healthy as they’d been all season. New York dropped a statement win on the table, as Mack rode the bench in the second half with Tibbetts searching instead for offensively slanted lineups to make a comeback.
Contender Or Pretender?
More Natasha Mack minutes might not have made a difference in that game. The Liberty, when their stars are healthy, are on a different level than Phoenix, as are the Minnesota Lynx. That’s OK.
The Mercury have had an excellent season to date, but unlike the teams ahead of them, they still need to figure out a firm identity. Maybe, that’s determining the perfect frontcourt partner for Thomas. Or, maybe, I’m overly fixated here and they’ll be good enough to embrace certain matchups in the playoffs. More importantly, Copper needs to stay healthy and get as many reps as she can in the second half of this season, while Sabally nails down her ideal role on the best team of her career.
It will not be easy for the Mercury. They have just 19 more regular season games, and while an MVP-level effort from Thomas with timely contributions from Sabally and the role players has them in third place, they haven’t scratched their ceiling yet.
They’re quite fun to watch. They sprint the floor until their lungs collapse, and when they pause, they can lean into an effective, motion-heavy half-court offense built around one of the weirdest (complimentary) players in the WNBA.
Defensively, they lean into their frenetic pace even more, forcing the most turnovers in the league by playing aggressive pick-and-roll coverages and taking plenty of chances in the passing lanes. Tibbetts seems to be the frontrunner for Coach of the Year, and though it’s not August yet, he’d be a deserving choice.
And yet, I can’t fully invest in the Mercury as a title team. I don’t think Sabally and Thomas can stand tall enough on defense to protect the paint over a playoff series. And if Kathryn Westbeld isn’t a difference-maker, I’m not sure their offense can keep humming with Mack on the court.
But 19 games isn’t nothing. Despite the injuries, Phoenix has the third-best record in the league, with plenty of improvements to make over the next six weeks and an All-Star-level talent coming back into the fold. No matter how this season goes, it’ll be fascinating to watch the Mercury try and climb into the top tier of the WNBA. I can’t wait.