Manchester City can’t technically be relegated but the commission investigating their alleged breaches of financial fair play will set a “tariff” that will see them go down if they’re found guilty.
An independent hearing into the Citizens’ alleged breaches of financial fair play finished in mid-December, and with a verdict expected imminently a number of sanctions have been touted, including points penalties, transfer embargoes, stripping titles and even complete expulsion from the Premier League.
City have claimed two legal wins over the Premier League, with Associated Party Transaction (APT) rules deemed ‘null and void’ in the most recent ‘significant’ victory for the club.
But they will be sweating the outcome of the FFP hearing despite insisting on their innocence throughout proceedings.
Both Everton and Nottingham Forest were docked points in 2023/2024 for breaking Profit and Sustainability (PSR) rules, and City look set to be hit considerably harder if they’re found guilty.
Football finance expert Kieran Maguire told the Manchester Evening News that City face a “significant points deduction” if found guilty of “corporate fraud” but can’t technically be relegated.
“It will be intriguing because when we have seen commission reports historically, in the case of Nottingham Forest and Everton, both parties were given a copy of the verdict to allow them to effectively collect their thoughts and put out press releases to coincide with that of the Premier League,” Maguire said when asked about when we might hear about potential punishments if the club were found guilty.
“There has been sort of a – we’re on opposite sides of the argument but we’re still going to act professionally. I think there’s been such a fallout from Manchester City and the Premier League that might not necessarily be the case.
“Having said that, the commission cannot said to be seen to be viewing one party above the other. So, one would presume they would have to release the conclusion of the report simultaneously.
“What I’ve heard from a few parties already, and I’ve spoken to a few people today, is that it could be, that there will be conclusion as to whether Manchester City are guilty or not guilty of individual charges. But the punishment might not be included in this initial report.
“I think that, in my personal view, is that it creates more problems than solutions. It will just lead to a social media meltdown. It will create expectations.
“If Manchester City are only found guilty of non-cooperation with the Premier League investigation and I think we can expect something in line with what we saw from UEFA. In that it will be a fiscal penalty.
“If Manchester City are found guilty of misrepresentation, which is effectively corporate fraud, then I think we have to be looking at a significant points deduction. On the basis that, again, if you read the commission reports for Nottingham Forest and Everton, they stressed that they were minor breaches of the rules.
“What Manchester City is being accused of, is effectively fraud over a longer period of time. So therefore, the punishment has to be scaled appropriately.
“I don’t think they can relegate the club as such, because this is a Premier League punishment,” Maguire said. “The Premier League doesn’t control the EFL, so therefore the commission would have to set a tariff – a punishment that will be so severe in terms of points deductions that it would effectively guarantee relegation.
“But they can’t do what we saw with Rangers and the SPFL and relegate them to League Two or similar.”
Maguire believes that City’s board will have no choice but to stand down from their position if found guilty by the independent panel.
“It brings the governance of Manchester City into disrepute, if found guilty, I don’t see how the board of directors can survive because again, looking for precedent, if you look to see what has happened in Serie A and Juventus,” he added.
“When Juventus were found guilty of effectively misrepresentation a couple of years ago – this was when they said players had taken big pay cuts during covid and that wasn’t the case, the board of directors had to resign.
“If people from Manchester City have made statements, sworn statements to the commission and it’s been concluded that those are misrepresentations, then the board of Man City has to be replaced.”
However, if City were found not guilty, the Premier League’s board will come under significant pressure from top clubs.
“Similarly if Man City win this case, where does that leave the board of the Premier League?” Maguire questioned. “The costs of the case are in excess of £50million to the Premier League, so therefore it must be similar for Manchester City.
“Those costs have to be born by the individual clubs. Now I know some clubs in the Premier League who don’t give a toss about this.
“They say ‘we’re not competing with Manchester City as far as we’re concerned, all of this pressure is coming from a small number of elite clubs who are competing for Champions League places. We’re in a different position, they’re going to be very angry.’
“It would put pressure on senior personnel at the head of the Premier League in terms of their ability to continue in their posts.”
If City were found not guilty, they could follow the Premier League’s suit and try to claim back some of the costs back from their legal battle.
“We did see the Premier League try to claim some costs back from Everton when it charged them last year,” Maguire revealed. “Everton said ‘ok we’ll go along with that’ but when they took a look at the size of the bill from the Premier League – it was charging ridiculous amounts of money so it got that scaled back.
“If City are successful expect them to go for the jugular.”