For the past few seasons, Minnesota Wild fans have been anxious for Matt Boldy to take the leap. Boldy has played at an All-Star level over the past two years, but fans have been waiting for him to become a franchise-caliber player who can complement Kirill Kaprizov.
Saturday’s game over the Winnipeg Jets was a big step in that direction. Boldy scored twice, including the game-winner in overtime. Now with 24 goals in 39 games, he’s on pace to flirt with the 50/50 season that Bill Guerin had predicted he was capable of before last season and lead the Wild into their first prolonged playoff run in nearly a decade.
Of course, Boldy’s detractors, if there are any left, are anticipating his annual slump to ruin those plans. Consistency has been the one thing holding Boldy back from being among the NHL’s elite. Still, an adjustment to his approach is not only fueling the best start of his career but also helping him find the consistency that has kept him from reaching his full potential.
Take a look at Boldy’s game log, and you can see where he needed to improve coming into this season. While Kaprizov earned Hart Trophy consideration for how he started this season, Boldy was a catalyst for the Wild’s surge toward the top of the standings, scoring 11 goals and recording 24 points in his first 23 games. The well ran dry when Boldy scored twice and logged seven points in the next 16 games, but he turned it on again with seven goals and 17 points over the final 17 games before the 4 Nations break.
Boldy’s performance at the 4 Nations Tournament led many to believe he would be set for a breakout in the final stretch of the season. But after recording a goal and an assist in the first game out of the break, Boldy went dark again, scoring two goals with 10 points over the next 15 games. Those numbers also don’t do the slump justice, as both of Boldy’s goals came in a March 19 win over the Seattle Kraken.
You could argue that the last slump was a blessing in disguise. Boldy sharpened other areas of his game, such as his passing and defense, to contribute even when he wasn’t scoring. Boldy also snapped out of the slump in a big way, scoring nine goals and 20 points in the final 16 games, including five goals and seven points in six playoff games.
Most goal scorers go on streaks, but finding the reason for those cold spots is the difference between a good player and an elite one. With that said, Boldy may have found the answer with a more aggressive approach than he had a season ago.
HockeyViz’s heat map for Boldy, which excludes empty net goals, shows part of the adjustment. Excluding empty-net goals, Boldy’s expected goals total of 29.6 shows he was snakebitten compared to his actual total of 23. Boldy’s 10% shooting percentage was also the lowest of his career, but it could have been a difference in where he was taking the shots as opposed to a decline in performance.
This year’s heat map shows a real difference. Boldy has used his 6-foot-2, 201-pound frame to get into the dirty areas, and as a result, he’s done most of his work around the net. The Athletic’s Michael Russo noted on Saturday that Boldy leads the NHL with 15 goals within 15 feet of the net. While he’s still shooting from all over the ice, the volume in front of the net has removed some of the variables from the equation.
Of course, it’s easier to instruct a player to get to the net as opposed to actually doing it. But you can’t argue with the results. While Boldy’s 18.6% shooting percentage may hint at some regression down to his career 12.7% mark, he’s found a way to curb some of the inconsistencies that have led to slumps in the past.
This could become extremely important as the year progresses. You could argue that Boldy was one of the biggest winners of the Quinn Hughes trade. Boldy has another player who can find him in the most effective areas to score goals. With defenses trying to focus on Hughes and Kaprizov, Boldy can go to the net more often, and it’s leading to one of the highest scoring outputs of his career.
If it gives Boldy more opportunities to contribute, the annual slump that has kept him from reaching his full potential may not occur this year, and the Wild may finally see their vision of a player reaching a new level as he approaches his prime fulfilled.