The verdict of Manchester City’s FFP battle with the Premier League is set to “explode on release” and will cause “chaos”, according to a football finance expert.
An independent hearing into the Citizens’ alleged breaches of financial fair play finished in mid-December, and with a verdict expected imminently a number of sanctions have been touted, including points penalties, transfer embargoes, stripping titles and even complete expulsion from the Premier League.
City have claimed two legal wins over the Premier League, with Associated Party Transaction (APT) rules deemed ‘null and void’ in the most recent ‘significant’ victory for the club.
But they will be sweating the outcome of the FFP hearing despite insisting on their innocence throughout proceedings.
Both Everton and Nottingham Forest were docked points in 2023/2024 for breaking Profit and Sustainability (PSR) rules, and City look set to be hit considerably harder if they’re found guilty.
Kieran Maguire claimed earlier this weekthat City face a “significant points deduction” if found guilty of “corporate fraud” but can’t technically be relegated.
And now fellow football finance expert Stefan Borson has revealed when it would “make sense” for the verdict to be revealed, at which points “chaos” will ensue.
He told talkSPORT: “It would make a lot of sense, wouldn’t it? In court, you’d say that’s completely irrelevant because the judges don’t care about whether it’s convenient commercially for the parties.
“But remember, this is a commercial arbitration of sorts, and therefore they may well be inclined to fit within the two parties’ preferences. You would think their preferences would be this week or next week, during the international break. That would make sense.
“There are a few indicators that it’s not imminent. Our friend Lord Pannick was not busily reading a draft decision that had been presented to him last night; he was in the House of Lords looking very pleased with himself, talking about expensive lawyers in the debates about the independent football regulator.
“So he was not in Chambers reading any decision that has been provided to him in advance of release. As you say, it would make sense for it to be in the next few days, but it’s equally not certain.”
Jim White interjected: “I hope you don’t mind me quoting what you just said during the commercial break, Stefan.
“You said, whatever happens when it drops, there’s going to be chaos. What do you mean?”
Borson added: “It’s very likely to be an extensive document, possibly hundreds of pages long, with an executive summary right at the front.
“There are going to be a lot of nuances, a lot of revelations. If it’s everything that we’ve expected about the number of charges that have been presented, it’s possible that a lot of that stuff dropped off.
“Even if the outcome is simple, even in the best-case scenario for Man City, where most of it is dismissed, let’s say only cooperation is found against them, there will still be things in there that people will want to spin a certain way, their enemies around the table, shall we say. They will still want to make certain suggestions about why the Premier League case didn’t succeed.
“On the other side, of course, if the worst comes to the worst for City, then there’s going to be some unbelievable stuff in there. It will likely be forced to say that a lot of people have been very naughty and have lied significantly and on multiple occasions to multiple parties over many years.
“Either way, it’s going to explode upon release, and how are people going to process a document like this? In terms of a decision and judgment, this might be one of the most scrutinized judgments in the history of the world. Because people don’t usually read decisions outside of legal analysis, but most of the world is interested in football, so it’s going to be interesting to take a look at.”
A report this week revealed Sky Sports have warned their pundits to ‘stick to the facts and avoid ‘snap judgements’ before commenting on the verdict.
“The problem that Sky has, of course, is if it goes against City, then the big question is not just for the Premier League but also for Sky: what do we make of the last decade of Premier League football?” Borson explained.
“That will be a big issue for Sky, and that’s why I think they will be even more concerned about the way this is presented compared to some other outlets. They have a big stake in this game; that’s why this is a very dangerous case for the Premier League and its partners. If it goes against City, then clearly there are big question marks over all of the ownership since 2009.”