The State of Hockey woke up on Wednesday morning, hungover from the realization that all this has happened before, and is happening again. The plucky Minnesota Wild built a 2-1 lead, only to find themselves unable to put away their opponent and fall behind in the series 3-2. Nothing is different than their previous two playoff series, and while the Wild still have Games 6 and 7 to prove those feelings are dead wrong, their track record isn’t encouraging.
Minnesota has a nasty habit of getting pummeled in elimination games. As Twitter user Derek (@stateofstats) noted, the Wild are 0-5 in their last five elimination games, losing by a combined score of 20-8. As for this year, it already feels like the underdog Wild threw their best shot at the Vegas Golden Knights, who are 11-11 lifetime in closeout games.
All the Knights have to do now is keep going .500, and it’s over.
We also have an idea of what we might hear if the Wild lose their ninth-straight playoff series. When they lost their eighth against the Dallas Stars — just days removed from an elimination-game stinker at the Xcel Energy Center — general manager Bill Guerin’s messaging was firmly in moral victory territory.
“I rarely bring this up, but I’m going to bring this up today because it’s real and it’s important,” Guerin said at his year-end press conference. “I think our players and our coaches deserve a lot of credit because they are fighting with one hand tied behind their back because of these cap restraints.”
The GM then doubled down on the sentiment. “I think our players and our team have done a fantastic job in just ignoring that and moving on and playing hockey. [Is this playoff loss] disappointing in the end? 100 percent. I’m very disappointed, but I don’t view this season as a failure. Our team played well. Back-to-back 100-point seasons. We have two of the best seasons that this franchise has ever had. Winning is hard, it’s hard and we’re working towards it.”
If the Wild lose, it’s not going to be hard to spin this series and season as a moral victory. Guerin did have $14.7 million less in cap space than almost every other team. Minnesota did have Kirill Kaprizov out for half a season, with Joel Eriksson Ek out for nearly half a season, and a pile-up of injuries. The Wild were the underdog, and that didn’t stop when they took a 2-1 series lead. Had it not been for a ticky-tack offside call, Ryan Hartman did score a go-ahead goal that would have delivered them Game 5.
All of these things are true. But so is this: They had the Golden Knights on the ropes, but were too gassed to put them away in Game 4. Then, in Game 5, with the chance to set up a closeout game at home in Game 6, they fell flat again.
Talk about the overturned goal all you’d like. That doesn’t change the fact that you can list several things leading up to that moment, which put Minnesota in that position to begin with.
For starters, the Wild power play put themselves behind early by surrendering a shorthanded goal on their first chance of the night. And this was no breakaway. Matt Boldy was back to defend, and Kaprizov and Zuccarello were in position to backcheck. But instead of having a chance to go up 1-0 in a huge spot, the power play was forced to merely break even.
In the second period, Hartman triggered an automatic delay of game call by putting a puck into the stands. You can’t do that. Of course, he could have redeemed himself in the third period, if it wasn’t for another You can’t do that moment, this time from Gustav Nyquist.
Look, offsides happen, and Nyquist is probably feeling sick about this today. It’s not really helpful to partake in the pile-on, but that is a spot where you simply have to make sure you’re onside.
But let’s take some heat off Nyquist and show what made this loss a true team effort. Minnesota tied the game up on Boldy’s incredible effort (on an equally brilliant pass from Joel Eriksson Ek) at 3:31 into the third period. Between that point and the end of the game, there were 20 minutes and 34 seconds.
The Wild had four shots on goal in that time. One every five minutes. That’s not enough to beat a team like the Golden Knights on the road.
Did Minnesota get a bad break last night? Sure. Have they shown they can hang with Vegas? Absolutely. Is this anything to feel good about? No.
Most in the State of Hockey agree that next year is the time to drop any room for excuses. Minnesota’s dead cap will go from nearly $15 million to under $2 million. They’ll finally be able to spend like a normal team. We will judge the Wild by wins and losses, particularly in the playoffs.
But even now, there’s no reason to keep treating the Wild as The Little Engine Who Couldn’t — a scrappy team with just one too many disadvantages to make real noise in the playoffs. Despite everything that happened before, Minnesota had a chance to advance to the second round. The dead cap didn’t stop that from happening, nor did all their regular-season injuries. But with two overtime games that could’ve put them in prime position to close out the series — or even shock the Knights with a gentleman’s sweep — they didn’t get it done.
Not couldn’t have gotten it done. Didn’t. It’s a small distinction, but it matters.
That’s not a moral victory, it’s a missed opportunity. And if Minnesota’s missed opportunities result in a(nother) missed second round, this series should be treated as such.