Sometimes when you lose something, you don’t realize how much it’s missed until it shows up again. Something that was harder when a vital component is missing suddenly becomes easy. Minnesota Wild fans had to be feeling that sort of sensation when they saw Joel Eriksson Ek playing on Monday night against the Seattle Kraken.
It wasn’t just his goal and three points on Tuesday night — his first three-point night since the end of last season. It was that we got to see Eriksson Ek putting his stamp on a game when his team needed him the most. Matt Boldy (no goals, two shots) and Kirill Kaprizov (one empty-net goal, three shots) were relatively quiet at the tail end of a long road trip, with Mats Zuccarello knocked out of the lineup. The Wild don’t have much secondary scoring this season, so this game was primed to go against Minnesota’s way.
But then, hey, Joel Eriksson Ek looked like himself again. Because of this, the Wild were able to win a game without having their two biggest stars carry the load.
Before breaking down what hasn’t been great about his game this year, we should give him some credit first. Eriksson Ek has played in all 30 games this season, a distinction shared by just seven of his teammates at this point. He draws incredibly hard matchups, takes the second-most faceoffs in the league, and is delivering high-end defense to a team that’s been hurting up the middle after Marco Rossi’s injury.
That’s all important, but what makes Eriksson Ek one of the best two-way centers in the league is that he’s a true two-way player. Since his breakout in 2020-21, Eriksson Ek has been a menace at the net front, earning him an average of 27.5 goals per 82 games. When he’s not scoring, he’s parked in front of the goalie, tipping shots, whacking at rebounds, and setting screens.
At least, when he’s at his best. Eriksson Ek has been anchoring a line with Boldy and Marcus Johansson — both of whom are scoring — but Eriksson Ek isn’t making as much impact in the offensive zone this season. Even after the three-point evening, Eriksson Ek has just five goals and 19 points through 30 games. That’s a respectable 52-point pace, but well off the 60-point standard he set for himself in 2022-23 and 2023-24.
It’s easy to point out the role of luck in this, as Eriksson Ek has a shooting percentage of just 5.6%, which is exactly half of what it was for the half-decade beforehand. If you doubled that shooting percentage to 11.2%, then suddenly, Eriksson Ek would have 10 goals and 24 points and be on pace for a career-high 66 points. His 90 shots on goal are 27th in the NHL, just seven back of Kaprizov (and six of Boldy) for the team lead.
Unfortunately, it’s not that simple. The counting stats matter, but not as much as how Eriksson Ek gets his numbers. He doesn’t just put up points, he grinds defensemen down. While Eriksson Ek can beat goalies clean occasionally, he doesn’t have the pure scoring talent of Kaprizov or Boldy. To pile up the goals, he has to get a lot of shots from the toughest areas of the ice.
That’s what’s been lacking, particularly at 5-on-5. The raw shot numbers in Minnesota show Boldy leading the team with 67, Kaprizov with 55, and Eriksson Ek having 54. That’d suggest that Eriksson Ek isn’t far behind those two. He is. Because of where Eriksson Ek is on the ice when shooting the puck, he’s lagging far behind the other two.
Among Boldy’s 105 unblocked shot attempts at 5-on-5, 47 of them (44.7%) have come within 20 feet of the net. We see a similar dynamic with Kaprizov, who fired 35 of his 85 unblocked attempts from within 20 feet (41.2%). Meanwhile, Eriksson Ek has only shot the puck from within 20 feet on 21 of his 75 unblocked attempts (28.0%). It’s a huge part of why his expected goals rate has fallen to his lowest level of the decade, and it’s not even particularly close.
Expected Goals Per Hour, By Season, 5-on-5, Joel Eriksson Ek:
2020-21: 1.11
2021-22: 0.77
2022-23: 0.80
2023-24: 0.93
2024-25: 0.81
2025-26: 0.58
That puts him at 13th on the Wild this season, generating fewer expected goals than pass-first forwards like Zuccarello and Johansson, less-talented grinders in Marcus Foligno and Ryan Hartman, and even Ben Jones! This is on a team that has the second-fewest 5-on-5 goals in the NHL. Minnesota simply can not afford to see Eriksson Ek’s offensive threat drop off so much.
Watching a vintage Eriksson Ek performance revealed exactly how much the Wild have missed his presence in the offensive zone this season. For Minnesota to keep its run going when its absurd goaltending run returns to normal, Eriksson Ek is going to have to return to his normal game. If Tuesday was a sign that Eriksson Ek is finally knocking off lingering effects from last season’s injuries, then that’s a game-changer for the team.