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Paris – Men’s semifinal action takes center stage in Paris on Friday, and the matchups are epic.
Let’s dive into them.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Lorenzo Musetti
Head-to-head: Alcaraz leads 5-1 Clay: Alcaraz leads 3-1
Lorenzo Musetti defeated Carlos Alcaraz in their first ever clay meeting, in the 2022 Hamburg final. It was a formative experience for the Italian, but it now feels like it was three decades rather than three years ago. Since then Alcaraz has become a Grand Slam champion four times over, and he has also won five consecutive matches against the talented Italian.
The pendulum is swinging ever so slowly back to Musetti’s side these days, as the Italian’s massive progress in the last 52 weeks has given him newfound belief that he can hang with Alcaraz in a big match like a Roland-Garros semi.
But believing and doing are two different things. As good as Musetti has been of late – his 19-3 record on clay is a testament – Alcaraz has been better. The 22-year-old Spaniard rides a 12-match Roland-Garros winning streak into Friday’s clash and has won 27 of 29 matches on clay dating back to the start of his run to his maiden Roland-Garros title this year.
He’s also defeated Musetti twice to clay in the leadup to Paris, in the Monte-Carlo final (3-6, 6-1, 6-0) and in the Rome semis (6-3, 7-6(4)).
So what could be different this time? Musetti is a Top-10 player now, and he’s probably learned a thing or two from those losses, but has he learned enough to turn around a lopsided head-to-head against the surging Spaniard?
Our prediction: It will take an off day from Alcaraz for him to have a chance.
Novak Djokovic vs Jannik Sinner
Head-to-Head: Tied, 4-4 Sinner has won the last three
Here comes 38-year-old Novak Djokovic, looking to crash the Sinner-Alcaraz party this weekend in Paris. The 24-time major champion seeks his 25th major title, and to do it he’ll likely have to become the first man to defeat the top three-ranked players en route to a Slam title in Open Era history.
Does he have it in him? It’s hard to say, but it seems a lot more possible now, that Djokovic has reeled off nine consecutive wins and put a hurt on third-seeded Alexander Zverev in the quarterfinals. The Serbian legend is confident and, more important, he hasn’t had to use too much energy to get through his first five matches. About 12 hours and 42 minutes, which should allow him to take his best shot at impervious Sinner.
But it will be a tough ask. Sinner is on a 19-match Grand Slam winning streak and he has hit the ground running after returning from his three-month doping suspension. One could easily make the argument that he might have the freshest legs on the ATP Tour after sitting on the sidelines while the rest of the tour beat each other silly for three months.
Djokovic, who is the oldest men’s singles semifinalist in Paris since 1968, will look to shorten points and throw wrinkles around the court to keep Sinner out of rhythm. Based on what we saw last night, he’s in great shape to do it.
Now let’s see if the Grand Slam king has another miracle trick up his sleeve
Our prediction: Djokovic will suprise, but it won't be enough in the end.