Hockey fans around the world rejoiced last season when the 4 Nations Face-Off showcased international best-on-best hockey for the first time in nearly a decade. While the event was a smash hit, it was only a prelude to the real main event — the Winter Olympic Games.
With national teams finalizing rosters for their first Olympic Games since 2014, the early stretch of this NHL campaign is especially vital for players who find themselves on the bubble of Olympic glory. Wild defender Brock Faber is one intriguing case.
At first glance, Faber’s Olympic case seems pretty solid. He made Team USA for the 4 Nations Face-Off and didn’t do anything to play himself out of a spot at that tournament. Bill Guerin’s involvement as Team USA’s general manager is also a massive boon for Faber’s chances.
Still, nothing is guaranteed, even with Guerin making roster decisions. In 2014, Steve Yzerman famously left Martin St. Louis off the initial Team Canada roster, leading to a rift between St. Louis and the organization that resulted in the departure of a franchise legend.
Team USA is also stacked on the blueline, with several of the game’s best defenders vying for spots. With Faber potentially on the bubble, let’s take a look at how he may fit on Team USA’s roster and how he can stand out among the American hopefuls.
Before discussing Faber’s chances, it’s essential first to determine how many spots are up for grabs. The Olympic rosters will feature 25 players, enough for 14 forwards, 8 defenders, and 3 goalkeepers.
Some blueliners are bona fide locks for Team USA already. USA Hockey announced that Quinn Hughes and Charlie McAvoy are among the first six players guaranteed a place on the team.
Apart from those names, it’s challenging to imagine Team USA leaving Jaccob Slavin, Zach Werenski, and Jake Sanderson at home.
Adam Fox is an interesting case, given that he was expected to play a considerable role for Team USA at the 4 Nations Face-Off. He disappointed somewhat in that tournament and wasn’t as good overall last year as he usually is. That has left Fox in an unexpected role: not a shoe-in for the team. Instead, Bill Guerin sees him as a player who’s only a potential fit.
“Adam, his tournament was fine,” he said. “It wasn’t as well as he could’ve played. His season wasn’t up to his standards, but he’s very much in the mix.”
If Hughes, McAvoy, Slavin, Werenski, and Sanderson take up five spots on the blueline, then there are three remaining spots potentially available. Faber should be near the top of that heap, but he’ll certainly face competition.
Let’s assume that anyone who made the 4 Nations roster is likely in contention for one of those three remaining spots. Those three players are Brock Faber, Adam Fox, and Noah Hanifin. That group has an advantage over the competition, but they aren’t the only Olympic hopefuls.
The Athletic has listed Jackson LaCombe and Luke Hughes as potential players for Team USA to consider. Lane Hutson is also intriguing, but Bill Guerin has signaled he’s too inexperienced to make this team.
“He’s a good player, but we only have room for so many players,” Guerin said. “I don’t know if it’s his time right now.”
Hutson will make Team USA at some point, but it doesn’t seem to be now. That leaves a competitive pool of Faber, Fox, Hanifin, LaCombe, and Hughes. Let’s compare and contrast those players, starting with traditional counting stats.
Surprisingly, Faber is playing the least besides Luke Hughes. His ability to play a significant portion of games has been his calling card in the past. However, this downward trend is more about him playing less time on the power play than in previous years. Faber is also the second-most effective scorer of the group.
Unfortunately, when you start looking at some of the metrics, Faber is lagging behind the pack in the quality of his play. He’s the lowest of the group in on-ice expected goals percentage and relative expected goals percentage.
(Source: Moneypuck)
Faber has been significantly less productive this year. His expected goals against/60 (2.94), high danger chances against/60 (11.19), and points/60 (.55) are the lowest of his career.
With Faber’s rocky start to the season, it’s natural to wonder if he’s playing himself out of a spot or, at least, making things more difficult on himself. That may be true, but he also has plenty going for him.
First, Faber has already established strong chemistry with players on the team. His pairing with Jaccob Slavin was one of the keys to the USA’s run at the 4 Nations Face-Off. The pair played over 40 combined minutes against Canada over two games and didn’t surrender a single goal.
Bill Guerin told The Athletic during the tournament that the pairing was a hit among the team’s staff as a unit they could trust.
“This wasn’t the Wild or Hurricanes staff raving about these guys anymore or throwing them out there for 30 minutes a game,” Guerin said. “You should have heard how these guys were talked about in the coaches’ room.”
Aside from Faber’s chemistry with the USA’s premier defensive defenseman, he also has an advantage over his competition with a few other factors.
Along with Slavin, Faber is renowned for his defensive ability, particularly with his gap control. The Team USA roster skews offensive-minded. They have high-octane scorers like Quinn Hughes, as well as players who are competent defensively but very focused on puck movement, such as Charlie McAvoy and Jake Sanderson.
Faber’s addition to the team could introduce a wrinkle they didn’t already have. Players like Adam Fox, Luke Hughes, and Jackson LaCombe would be more of what the team already possesses.
Faber is also the only defender in the bubble group to have already played in the Olympic Games. He made the team in 2022 when the NHL wasn’t participating. However, this year’s Olympics will be significantly more challenging as an actual best-on-best tournament, but he already has experience in the format.
Ultimately, Faber’s experience, trust in the USA staff, and playstyle will likely be enough to secure a spot on the USA team. At least as things currently stand. Still, if his play continues to skew negative this year, he may be playing himself into more of a bubble position than he should be in.