The Minnesota Wild are not where they expected to be right now.
Eleven months ago, they were one of the best teams in the NHL and had their eyes on a deep playoff run. Even though they lost in the first round of the playoffs the following spring, general manager Bill Guerin felt comfortable enough to place his faith in this group, locking in several players and looking toward a group of new ones as part of his five-year plan to win a Stanley Cup.
14 games into this season, it’s clear that something isn’t working. The Wild are 5-6-3, and there’s a good chance they could be out of the playoff picture as the NHL approaches American Thanksgiving. 78.1% of teams in playoff spots on Turkey Day make the playoffs in the spring, so Minnesota needs to figure it out, and there’s a chance Guerin’s plan to inject some youth into this group isn’t working.
That’s a frustrating thing for Wild fans to accept. For the past couple of years, experts have touted the Wild for having one of the best prospect pools in hockey. The hope is that the youth would eventually find their way to St. Paul and be the catalyst for a franchise that hasn’t been out of the first round of the playoffs since 2015.
The anticipation reached a fever pitch this summer. Guerin didn’t cave into the high prices of a weak free-agent class despite owner Craig Leipold’s promise of a hockey Christmas. Older veterans such as Marcus Johansson and Zach Bogosian appeared to be aging out, and inviting the new wave of players, including Zeev Buium, David Jiříček, and Liam Öhgren, to join the fun.
Wild fans have seen those players hit the ice early in the season. However, within the group, which also includes Russian import Danila Yurov, only Buium has made enough of an impact to stay in the lineup.
To many, this is Guerin and Hynes leaning on their veteran players until the bloody end. But this is also a case of young players not producing enough to be net-positive on the ice.
A great example of this is the difference between Buium and Jiříček. Buium has made his share of mistakes as a 19-year-old rookie, but he’s also been an elite offensive player with three goals and nine points in the first 14 games. His minus-11 plus/minus rating is unsightly, but the Wild can live with it, knowing that Buium is going to make a positive impact at some point when he’s on the ice.
However, Jiříček’s quest for minutes has been complicated. Jiříček has been a driver for the Wild’s even-strength offense, generating 3.05 expected goals per 60 minutes, according to HockeyViz’s Micah Blake McCurdy. Even though Minnesota has struggled to score in 5-on-5 situations this year, it’s something he can hang his hat on even as he serves on the third defensive pairing.
The issue is that the contributions end there. Jiříček struggled defensively, with opponents averaging 2.76 expected goals per 60 minutes when he’s on the ice at even strength. He also failed to record a point in 10 games and is logging a minus-3 rating. Many want Jiříček to overtake Zach Bogosian’s spot. However, the 35-year-old doesn’t make as many mistakes as his younger counterpart, likely ensuring a spot in the lineup and Jiříček’s ticket back to Iowa when he returns from injury.
Öhgren ran into the same problem at the beginning of the season. Many believed Johansson would be watching games from the press box by now. However, Öhgren didn’t do much to wrest the job away from him in preseason and training camp, and Minnesota sent him down shortly after the season began.
Johansson has validated that decision, ranking second on the team with six goals and tied with Marco Rossi for third with 12 points. However, this wouldn’t have happened if Öhgren had presented something positive that helped him maintain his active spot on the roster.
Wild fans don’t want to hear this. They just want the young players to learn from their mistakes on the ice. However, the front office and ownership are willing to sell out to make the playoffs at any cost, a task that came down to the final seconds of the regular-season finale one year ago.
In addition, the young players’ shortcomings aren’t a death sentence for their time in Minnesota. If they figure it out, they could be on the back end of Guerin’s five-year plan, making them key cogs in what he believes can become a championship team with the veterans already in St. Paul and the players in the system.
But that has created an awkward mess in the present. While the veterans are underperforming, the young players haven’t shown enough to stay on the ice. Perhaps the return of Mats Zuccarello and Nico Sturm will push the young players back to Iowa and give them the ice time they need to develop. But until they’re able to, the Wild will be stuck in a rut trying to live in the present and the future simultaneously.