The Minnesota Wild are entering the offseason in a fascinating position. The team has cap space, but they need a center and have a dwindling number of options at the position. Their presumed top target, Brock Nelson, re-signed with the Colorado Avalanche, and Sam Bennett seems likely to re-sign with the Florida Panthers.
While many options are already off the table, there are still some enticing pieces available. The Athletic’s Joe Smith recently named one free agent each NHL team should go after this summer.
Smith listed a few possibilities for Minnesota: “The Wild need to get (John) Tavares, (Matt) Duchene, or Jonathan Toews to address the position, especially after missing out on Nelson.”
Matt Duchene could be a viable option. However, if the Wild can’t sign him, they must make every effort to sign John Tavares.
Will Tavares Be Available?
At first glance, it may seem like John Tavares is unlikely to hit the free agent market. The center had 74 points in 75 games last year. Tavares also badly wants to stay in Toronto and could be poised to take a more team-friendly deal to get that done.
For most teams, bringing Tavares back would be a slam dunk. But the Toronto Maple Leafs aren’t most teams.
The Maple Leafs’ struggles in the playoffs are well-documented; they have failed to advance past the second round since signing Tavares in 2018. Wide-sweeping changes are finally taking place in Toronto, with general manager Brad Treliving confirming the shift in a post-season presser.
“There’s some DNA that has to change in our team,” Treliving said. “If you keep getting the same result, there’s some DNA that needs to change. That’s on me going forward. We’ve now started the planning, and it’s early, for putting a team together for 2025-26.”
Toronto has parted ways with long-time team president Brendan Shanahan, and Mitch Marner seems as good as gone. That’s a lot of turnover already, but Treliving’s statement indicates significant movement.
Could John Tavares’ departure be a part of the Leafs’ changing DNA?
If Toronto decides to move on from their former captain to overhaul their lineup, Tavares should immediately become one of the most sought-after players on the free-agent market.
He may also be a perfect fit for the Wild.
Assessing Tavares’ Fit In Minnesota
To start, Tavares fits Minnesota’s mold. Bill Guerin discussed what he’s hoping to add in Minnesota this offseason in an interview with the Wild on 7th Podcast.
“We’re going to focus mainly on forwards,” Guerin said. “I believe our D is set. We’ve got a good mix of veterans and youth. So mainly for me, I’m focused on forwards. Yeah, faceoffs – we need somebody to help with that. We need veteran-type guys who’ve been through it, who’ve got some battle scars and can help in that way.”
Guerin may as well be describing Tavares. The center is a respected veteran with over 1000 career games and points. He’ll be 35 years old next season, but he’s still a productive and consistent player who could contribute to the Wild in some crucial aspects of the game.
Tavares ranks sixth in the NHL with a 58.3% faceoff win percentage. The center has compiled a 57.5% faceoff rate since signing with Toronto in 2018. The Wild could use that help, given that they ranked 28th in the league last season in faceoff percentage, winning only 46.7% of their draws.
While having help in the faceoff department would be a massive addition for the Wild, Tavares can contribute much more. Tavares scored 74 points last season, more than any player on the Wild. If Minnesota added Tavares, he would immediately become one of the team’s top three scorers, along with Kirill Kaprizov and Matt Boldy.
However, his impact goes beyond the numbers. The way Tavares scores and produces offense would be a massive asset for Minnesota.
The Wild could use help on the power play. They scored on 20.9% of their power plays, ranking 20th in the league. Tavares has been an anchor on Toronto’s power play, which has been among the NHL’s top 10 extra-man units for the last three years.
Tavares was integral to that unit due to his proficiency in front of the net. Check out his shooting heat map from last season on the power play, where he scored 12 goals.
(Source: Moneypuck.com)
Imagine a Wild power play unit that features Tavares in the middle of the ice while Kaprizov and Matt Boldy playmake on the perimeter. That could be deadly.
John Tavares is a high-quality player who fills several of Minnesota’s needs. He’s still a threat to score from anywhere, plays adequate defense, is a fantastic faceoff man, and provides veteran leadership.
Getting A Deal Done
It’s easy to identify a multiple-time all-star and say he could make the team better. Adding Tavares to the lineup would be a boon for any NHL club. It is an entirely different endeavor to determine whether it’s feasible or worth the asking price.
What kind of deal would make sense for the Wild?
While Tavares may sign a team-friendly deal because of his desire to stay in Toronto, that wouldn’t be the case if he were to hit the open market. Insider Chris Johnston spoke about Tavares’ next deal on a recent episode of his podcast, analyzing where the star center’s number might land.
“There’s not a lot of guys who can score you 38 goals and get you 70 points available.” Johnston said, “Brock Nelson signed a 3-year deal at $7.5 million. I have to believe that offer or even more would be out there for John Tavares if he got to a point where he was testing the market.”
AFP Analytics’ contract projection for Tavares’ next deal also aligns with Johnston’s belief, projecting a $7.9 million cap hit on the center’s upcoming contract.
(Source)
That’s a significant amount of money, but teams must pay a premium to attract top players in free agency. If the Wild were planning on bringing in Brock Nelson, as has been reported, they could afford a deal similar to what he ended up getting paid. Nelson is also only a year younger than Tavares, so the team isn’t uncomfortable paying an aging player.
According to Puckpedia, the Wild have roughly $16 million in cap space.
(Source: puckpedia.com)
They could give Tavares a 3-year contract worth $8 million annually and still have plenty of space left to extend Kirill Kaprizov and shore up any bottom-of-the-lineup deficiencies.
John Tavares makes sense for the Wild if he makes it to the open market. His age is a cause for concern, but with most of the centers off the board, Minnesota will need to take a risk. Tavares brings a style of play currently missing from the Wild’s forward group and is the veteran presence Guerin covets. It might be worth a try if Minnesota has the chance.