Christmas may be only a few weeks away, but the Minnesota Wild’s path to the playoffs is becoming clearer.
Entering Wednesday night, the Wild were six points ahead of the Utah Mammoth and San Jose Sharks for the final Wild Card spot in the Western Conference. They also held a seven-point lead over the Chicago Blackhawks for the third and final playoff spot in the Central Division, giving them an 84.6% chance to make the playoffs, according to MoneyPuck.
That is the good news. The bad news? The Wild are 10 points behind the Dallas Stars for the second spot in the Central Division. Under the NHL’s current playoff format, the Wild own the fourth-most points in the Western Conference but wouldn’t have home ice advantage in the first round.
With the reward of facing a Stars team that has the second-most points in the conference, the Wild are setting themselves up to be the poster child for the argument to restore the NHL’s previous playoff format. But they shouldn’t use that as a scapegoat, given they don’t seem to have enough to make some noise, should they be fortunate enough to get to the postseason.
The NHL installed its current playoff format before the 2013-14 season. Before the change, teams would line up in the traditional 1-through-8 playoff format, making sure the best teams had the easiest path through the bracket and wouldn’t see each other until the conference semifinals or finals.
While that makes sense, the NHL was trying to develop some regionalized rivalries. The answer was to have division standings matter more than conference standings. The top team in the division would still face a Wild Card team, but the second and third teams would battle in the first round regardless of where they stood in the conference standings.
For Wild fans, the format has served its purpose. Minnesota’s battles with the Chicago Blackhawks made them their most hated rival during the 2010s. More recently, the Wild have developed more division rivalries with the Stars and the Colorado Avalanche. Even the Winnipeg Jets have made a cameo from time to time as the Central has become one of the most competitive divisions in hockey.
The only problem is that the Pacific Division hasn’t held up to its end of the bargain. In six of the 10 seasons the format has been in place, the third seed in the Central Division would have had home-ice advantage under the previous format, but would have had to go on the road.
It’s not just the third seed that has been burned. The 2016-17 Wild had the second-most points (107) in the Western Conference, but instead of facing the seventh-seeded Calgary Flames (94 points), they faced a Blues team (99 points) that would have been the No. 5 seed in the previous format, and St. Louis bounced them in five games.
With this history and the way this current team appears to be set up, it would be understandable if Wild fans were bracing themselves for the NHL’s playoff system to bracket them and were calling for a change. But even if the NHL used its old format, this Wild team may not be good enough to end its first-round playoff drought.
The Wild played well in November, but it was fueled by off-the-charts goaltending. Jesper Wallstedt has been fantastic, and having Filip Gustavsson in the goalie room could serve as insurance in case Wallstedt hits a wall in his first full season in the NHL.
But goaltending is also fickle and could fall apart faster than you can say “two good goalies.” For the Wild to make a playoff run, they’re going to need some offense, which has become a massive problem for everyone not named Matt Boldy or Kirill Kaprizov.
Entering Wednesday night, Boldy and Kaprizov accounted for 41.4% of the Wild’s goals this season. No other player has double-digit goals on the season, and Marcus Johansson is the only other player with more than five. Although Bill Guerin may have financially committed to Ryan Hartman and Marcus Foligno, they’re not providing the scoring punch they have in years past. Injuries to Marco Rossi, Mats Zuccarello, and Nico Sturm have also bogged things down.
The Wild tried this formula of a two-man offense and elite goaltending a year ago in their playoff series against the Vegas Golden Knights. While Kaprizov and Boldy scored 10 goals in the six-game series, the rest of the team scored nine combined, allowing Vegas to come away with the series win.
Of course, things change in hockey. At this time last year, the Wild were their usual November wagon until things went off the rails due to injuries after Christmas. Guerin is also actively seeking scoring help ahead of the upcoming roster freeze, per The Athletic’s Michael Russo. Still, he’d have to get creative to swing a blockbuster deal that can save the Wild’s offense.
It also comes off the heels of an offseason that was promised to be Christmas, only for Santa Guerin to come home with Sturm and an aging Vladimir Tarasenko. While you could argue that not overpaying for assets was the right move, it was still detrimental to this year’s team, which is struggling to put the puck in the net.
Either way, it feels like the Wild aren’t good enough to get the job done. Blaming the current playoff format won’t be the perfect scapegoat to fall back on.