The Minnesota Wild have made no secret of their trade deadline shopping list. Speaking to Joe Smith of The Athletic, Bill Guerin revealed the thing everyone pretty much already knew: “I’d like to add a forward at some point in time if it makes sense…. Of course, we’d love to add a center…. If you can’t do it, maybe we pivot to a wing.”
The Wild are right to target a forward, and after the Quinn Hughes trade, they have few big-ticket prospects and young players to work with. These are limitations Guerin has to navigate, and he must be careful about how he deploys his assets.
Even so, when you look at Guerin’s history, it’s hard to expect that he will try to trade for exactly one forward, then call it a day for the trade deadline.
During his time in the GM chair, Guerin has been a prolific tinkerer at the deadline. We remember Marc-Andre Fleury being the major piece of 2022, but he also acquired Jake Middleton, Tyson Jost, and Nicolas Deslauriers that March. The following year, he grabbed Marcus Johansson, Gustav Nyquist, Oskar Sundqvist, and John Klingberg. Even last year, with no cap space, he brought in Nyquist (oops) and Justin Brazeau.
Don’t expect Guerin to be one-and-done this year, either. There are 23 spots on the Wild roster, which leaves plenty of room for upgrades, even in places that don’t immediately stand out as urgent needs.
If Guerin is in a tinkering mood, the Calgary Flames would be a good team to call. Zach Whitecloud is a low-scoring, right-shot defenseman, which doesn’t fit most people’s idea of what the Wild need. How does he help down the middle? He doesn’t. How does he help maximize the offensive potential of this squad? He won’t. Don’t the Wild already have Brock Faber, Jared Spurgeon, and Zach Bogosian on the right side of the defense? They do.
But all of that is focusing on what Whitecloud can’t do. Here’s what he does well: Playing solid defense and killing penalties. He’s a right-shot Middleton, a big, physical defenseman who thrives in third-pair minutes while being reliable enough to step into a top-four role when needed.
Is Whitecloud one-dimensional? Sure. But his one dimension can patch up Minnesota’s most fatal flaw. As much as fans are clamoring for that big forward add, the Wild haven’t had much trouble scoring goals with Hughes in the fold. Since December 14, they’ve been top of the league in goals for (102) and ninth in goals per hour at 5-on-5 (3.02). Again, there’s room to improve, but the Wild are high-flying right now.
The team’s weakness is on the penalty kill. Minnesota navigates this pretty well, to be fair. The Wild takes minor penalties at the second-lowest rate in the NHL, which limits their exposure. But even though there has been improvement in their shorthanded game, Minnesota’s kill might not be up to snuff facing man-advantage powerhouses like the Dallas Stars and Edmonton Oilers in the playoffs.
This year, it’s clear where the weakest link is when Minnesota is shorthanded: Jared Spurgeon. At 5-on-5, it’s clear that Spurgeon still has his defensive chops. Of the 184 defensemen with 500-plus 5-on-5 minutes, Spurgeon is tied for 33rd in goals allowed per hour (2.03) and tied for 49th in expected goals allowed per hour (2.57). It’s not quite as elite as he used to be, but hey, he’s 36.
However, Spurgeon is playing a dangerous game on the penalty kill. Among 137 defensemen who have 50-plus 4-on-5 minutes, Spurgeon’s 8.64 goals against ranks 106th. And that’s with some fortunate goaltending — his 10.76 expected goals against per hour is 118th, in the league’s bottom-20.
Compared to the same field, Whitecloud ranks 52nd in actual goals allowed (6.47 per hour) and 54th in expected goals allowed (8.79). By the time Whitecloud left the Vegas Golden Knights, he was the second-biggest minute-muncher on a top-10 penalty kill. It also probably helps to add Whitecloud’s five inches and 44 pounds.
There is also a potential trickle-down effect that could benefit Spurgeon and Faber. Whitecloud averaged 18 minutes and 46 seconds per night in Vegas and is putting in top-pair minutes in Calgary (23:09 per game). Spurgeon is averaging over 20 minutes per night at age-36, while only Moritz Seider has logged more ice time than Faber.
The reason is partly that they can’t trust anyone on the right side to cut into Spurgeon and Faber’s minutes. The 35-year-old Bogosian has been injured multiple times, and when he does play, he averages under 15 minutes per night. On the opposite end of the age spectrum is David Jiříček, whose decision-making issues mean he averages under 12 minutes.
There’s nothing flashy about Whitecloud, but he’s (currently) on the right side of 30 while having 78 playoff games of experience, including a Cup win. Combined with his defensive responsibility, that’s an archetype of a player that John Hynes can trust to take some workload off Faber and Spurgeon, especially in the games that matter most.
Whitecloud is signed for the next two seasons at a cheap $2.75 million. That’d be a plus for Minnesota. Bogosian’s contract is expiring, Jiříček has yet to cement himself as an NHLer, and the Wild could consider buying out the final year of Spurgeon’s contract this offseason. Having Whitecloud in the fold is a great option to hedge against potential changes, and he should be gettable without sacrificing a premium asset like Danila Yurov, Jesper Wallstedt, or Charlie Stramel.
Minnesota’s focus is on forward, but that doesn’t mean defense isn’t a need. Targeting someone like Whitecloud, who can take pressure off their top-four at 5-on-5 and give a boost to the penalty kill, would make for a smaller move that could go a long way in the playoffs. That need might not be at the top of their list, but fans should hope that Guerin leaves some time and prospect capital to investigate upgrading his blueline.